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The forecast for 20 is downgraded to 3.5 percent for both years, from 3.9 and 3.7 percent respectively, against the backdrop of an uncertain domestic political outlook and a gradually tightening global financial environment.
Public spending offset weaker private demand to keep growth solid in the first quarter.Despite declining food prices, lira depreciation and increases in oil prices pushed inflation higher.The Brief notes that growth remained resilient in Q1 thanks to public spending and lower imports.Likewise job creation recovered in the first quarter driven by services and industry.However, the gold adjusted deficit, a more accurate measure of external demand, deteriorated due to persistent weakness in Turkey’s trading partners.
The Brief indicates that inflation is likely peaking.
The expected FED lift-off will lower the returns on carry trade and is likely to put emerging market currencies under pressure.
The Central Bank will thus have limited room for accommodative monetary policy whilst maintaining financial stability.
Exchange rate depreciation amplified the impact of the oil price rebound since January and outweighed the relief from lower May food prices.
Looking forward, favorable weather and a better harvest will further help bring food inflation down.
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